2024-2025 Crop Forecasting Survey
40th edition
Zambia, 2025
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Reference ID
ZMB-ZSA-CFS-2024-25-V1.0
Producer(s)
Zambia Statistics Agency,
Metadata
Created on
Jan 16, 2026
Last modified
Jan 20, 2026
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Identification
Survey ID Number
ZMB-ZSA-CFS-2024-25-V1.0
Title
2024-2025 Crop Forecasting Survey
Subtitle
40th edition
Country
| Name | Country code |
|---|---|
| Zambia | ZMB |
Study type
Agricultural Survey [ag/oth]
Series Information
The purpose of the Crop Forecasting Survey is to obtain crop data for the current agricultural season.The Crop Forecasting Survey is conducted during the first and second quarters of each year, a critical period when crops are actively growing. The survey generally collects estimates, relate to area planted to crops, expected and/or realized production, quantity and variety of seed, quantity harvested and type of fertilizer used, crop sales, carryover stocks, and crop marketing among other variables. Except otherwise stated, the reference period for this information is the current agricultural season starting 1st October 2024 ending 30th September 2025.
Abstract
The Crop Forecasting Survey (CFS) is an indispensable tool for Zambia's agricultural sector, offering accurate, timely data on crop production and related variables. Initiated under the Statistics Act of 2018, the survey is an ongoing collaborative effort between the Ministry of Agriculture and the Zambia Statistics Agency, aimed at generating reliable estimates of Zambia's agricultural output. The data produced serve as a foundation for policy formulation, enabling both the government and private sector stakeholders to respond proactively to food security needs and economic opportunities.
Kind of Data
Sample survey data [ssd]
Unit of Analysis
Household level
Establishment level
Establishment level
Version
Version Description
Version 1.0
Version Date
2025-05-01
Scope
Notes
This scope of this survey includes the concepts and definitions used, the survey methodology, seasonal weather performance, and household characteristics. The survey further provides information on farmland and use, crop production, fertiliser acquisition and application, seed type and source, anticipated crop sales, and an indication of the food security situation during the 2024/2025 marketing season
Topics
| Topic |
|---|
| Household Demographic Characteristics |
| Record Keeping |
| Parcel Roster |
| Field Roster |
| Crop Roster |
| Temporary Crop Production (Non-vegetable) |
| Permanent Crop Production |
| Food Crop Stocks |
| Vegetable Crop Production |
| Seeds and Seedlings Acquisition |
| Input Use |
| Crop Forecast Sales from Own Production, |
| Land Ownership |
Keywords
| Keyword |
|---|
| land use |
| Crop yield |
| Area planted |
| Tillage methods |
| crop production |
| Maize |
| Sorgum |
| Rice |
| Millet |
| Soya beans |
| Seed cotton |
| Irish potatoes |
| Tobacco |
| Dry spells |
| Fertiliser |
| Seed |
| Food security |
Coverage
Geographic Coverage
National Coverage
Provincial
Rural/Urban
Provincial
Rural/Urban
Universe
Category A included households with cultivated land of less than two hectares, and raised less than 50 cattle, less than 30 goats, less than 20 pigs and less than 50 chickens.
Category B included households with 2.0 to 4.99 hectares of cultivated land. This category also included households reporting any of the rarely grown crops, when 3 to 5 households in the EA report the specified crop(s), even if they do not qualify based on area under crops.
Category C included households with 5.0 to 19.99 hectares of cultivated land. This category also included: Households reporting any of the rarely grown crops when only 1 or 2 households in the EA report the rarely grown crop(s), even if they do not qualify based on area under crops. Households raising either, 50 or more cattle, and/or 20 or more pigs, and/or 30 or more goats, and/or 50 or more chickens, even if they do not qualify based on area under crops.
For Large scale farmers were enumerators
Category B included households with 2.0 to 4.99 hectares of cultivated land. This category also included households reporting any of the rarely grown crops, when 3 to 5 households in the EA report the specified crop(s), even if they do not qualify based on area under crops.
Category C included households with 5.0 to 19.99 hectares of cultivated land. This category also included: Households reporting any of the rarely grown crops when only 1 or 2 households in the EA report the rarely grown crop(s), even if they do not qualify based on area under crops. Households raising either, 50 or more cattle, and/or 20 or more pigs, and/or 30 or more goats, and/or 50 or more chickens, even if they do not qualify based on area under crops.
For Large scale farmers were enumerators
Producers and sponsors
Primary investigators
| Name | Affiliation |
|---|---|
| Zambia Statistics Agency | Ministry of Finance and National Planning |
Producers
| Name | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Ministry of Agriculture | GRZ | questionaire design, data collection, processing aand analysis |
| Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock | GRZ | questionaire design, data collection, processing aand analysis |
Funding Agency/Sponsor
| Name | Abbreviation | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Government of the republic of Zambia | GRZ | Facilitating funds for the survey |
| The World Bank Group | WB | Funded the survey |
Other Identifications/Acknowledgments
| Name | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Food Agriculture Organisation | United Nations | Technical Assistance |
Sampling
Sampling Procedure
The sampling method for agricultural households is a stratified two stage sampling design. The primary sampling unit (PSU) for the survey is the enumeration area (EA) as designed for the 2022 census of population and housing (CPH) and the secondary sampling unit (SSU) is the Agricultural household in the sampled EAs. The complete list of agricultural households will be developed from a listing operation that took place during the 2024 IAS. During the survey design stage, the sampling frame was stratified by district and region (rural/urban) criteria in each Province (estimation domain/analytical stratum). An implicit stratification was also performed through sorting the frame of EAs by geographic identification particulars and the number of agricultural households before the selection of EAs.
Weighting
The basic weight for each sample agricultural household would be equal to the inverse of its probability of selection (calculated by multiplying the probabilities at each sampling stage).
The probability of selection for sample agricultural households includes factors for three sampling stages, expressed as follows :
1. Selection of EAs for IAS (frame PHC2022)
where:
p1hi = probability of selection for the i-th sample EA in stratum h (District x Rural/Urban)
nh = number of sample EAs in stratum h
Mh = total number of agricultural households in the frame for stratum h
Mhi = total number of agricultural households in the frame for the i-th sample EA in stratum h
2 Selection of EAs for CFS within frame = IAS
p2hi = probability of selecting the i-th EA in stratum h for CFS
n'h = number of sample EAs in stratum h for CFS
M'h = total number of agricultural households in stratum h (frame = IAS)
3 stage Selection of AHHs in EA sampled after A, B and stratification (k)
mki = number of sample agricultural households selected in the i-th sample EA
in stratum h
Mki = total number of agricultural households listed in the i-th sample EA in stratum
k
Finally the probability of i-th AHH in stratum h to be selected
The basic sampling weight, or expansion factor, is calculated as the inverse of this probability of selection. Based on the previous expression for the probability, the weight can be simplified as follows:
where:
Wkij = basic weight for the sample agricultural household j within the i-th sample EA in stratum k
The probability of selection for sample agricultural households includes factors for three sampling stages, expressed as follows :
1. Selection of EAs for IAS (frame PHC2022)
where:
p1hi = probability of selection for the i-th sample EA in stratum h (District x Rural/Urban)
nh = number of sample EAs in stratum h
Mh = total number of agricultural households in the frame for stratum h
Mhi = total number of agricultural households in the frame for the i-th sample EA in stratum h
2 Selection of EAs for CFS within frame = IAS
p2hi = probability of selecting the i-th EA in stratum h for CFS
n'h = number of sample EAs in stratum h for CFS
M'h = total number of agricultural households in stratum h (frame = IAS)
3 stage Selection of AHHs in EA sampled after A, B and stratification (k)
mki = number of sample agricultural households selected in the i-th sample EA
in stratum h
Mki = total number of agricultural households listed in the i-th sample EA in stratum
k
Finally the probability of i-th AHH in stratum h to be selected
The basic sampling weight, or expansion factor, is calculated as the inverse of this probability of selection. Based on the previous expression for the probability, the weight can be simplified as follows:
where:
Wkij = basic weight for the sample agricultural household j within the i-th sample EA in stratum k
Data Collection
Dates of Data Collection
| Start | End |
|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-05-15 |
Data Collection Mode
Face-to-face [f2f]
Supervision
Interviewing was conducted by teams of interviewers from ZamStats, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock and Ministry of Agriculture. Each interviewing team comprised 3 interviewrwes one supervisor and a driver.
The role of the supervisor was to coordinator field data collection activities, including management of the field teams, field logistics, enumeartion area canvassing, allocation of work among team members , navigating the area using Mapsme and listings, coordinate with local authorities concerning the survey and make arrangements for accommodation and travel. Additionally, the field supervisor conducts spot checks and provided progress reports to the central office.
The role of the supervisor was to coordinator field data collection activities, including management of the field teams, field logistics, enumeartion area canvassing, allocation of work among team members , navigating the area using Mapsme and listings, coordinate with local authorities concerning the survey and make arrangements for accommodation and travel. Additionally, the field supervisor conducts spot checks and provided progress reports to the central office.
Data Collection Notes
The sampled small and medium-scale agricultural households were visited by enumerators and face-to-face interviews were conducted using Survey solutions software installed on the tablets. A team approach was used. The teams consisted of a surpervisor and 3 enumerators and a driver.
For large-scale farms/establishments were enumerated on 100 percent coverage basis. Face to face interviews were conducted but in cases where farmers were not available a hard copy questionnaires was left with the farmer to fill in and farmers were also given the option of filling in an online questionnaire.
For large-scale farms/establishments were enumerated on 100 percent coverage basis. Face to face interviews were conducted but in cases where farmers were not available a hard copy questionnaires was left with the farmer to fill in and farmers were also given the option of filling in an online questionnaire.
Data Collectors
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation |
|---|---|---|
| Zambia Zambia Statistics Agency staff | ZamStats | Ministry of Finance and National Planning |
| Ministry of Agriculture staff | MoA | GRZ |
| Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock Staff | MFL | GRZ |
Questionnaires
Questionnaires
Small and Meduim scale questionnaire :The questionnaire was administered households and had questions on household head, holding idenitifiers, demographics, farm data, crop roster and expected yields
Large scale questionaire was used: The questionnaire was administered to holdings and had questions, holding idenitifiers, farm data, crop roster, expected yields and expected sales.
Large scale questionaire was used: The questionnaire was administered to holdings and had questions, holding idenitifiers, farm data, crop roster, expected yields and expected sales.
Data Processing
Data Editing
Data was collected by enumerators then it was checked by the supervisor and uploaded to the server. The Trainers and Information Technology (IT) personnel were monitoring and reviewing the data uploaded by enumerators to the server. The Trainers reviewed the questionnaires; if the collected data met quality standards, the Trainers would approve the questionnaire. Conversely, if the data was deemed substandard, the questionnaire would be rejected. This process was an integral part of the quality control measures, allowing teams to revisit households and correct errors before advancing to the next cluster.
Access policy
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | URL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head of Dessemination | Zambia Statistics Agency | info@zamstats.gov.zm | Link |
Confidentiality
The Agency shall,where statistics are designated as official statistics, protect the confidentiality and identity of the source of dataUnder the provision of the Statistics ACT no.13 of 2018, ZamStats is obliged to preserve the confidentiality of respondent information in all its census and survey data
Before being granted access to the dataset, all users have to formally agree:
1. To make no copies of any files or portions of files to which s/he is granted access except those authorized by the Agency.
2. Not to use any technique in an attempt to learn the identity of any person, establishment, or sampling unit not identified on public use data files.
3. To hold in strictest confidence the identification of any establishment or individual that may be inadvertently revealed in any documents or discussion, or analysis. Such inadvertent identification revealed in her/his analysis will be immediately brought to the attention of the Agency
Access conditions
Micro data records are anonymised as per procedures before these are made available to users.
Survcey micro data will be provided and subjected to the anonymisation techniques and documented accordingly.
Micro data files are all free but under access policy Conditions:
Each dataset has an access policy :Public use file- Accessible to all and - Licensed datasets, accessible under conditions. The dataset has been anonymized and is available as a Public Use Dataset. It is accessible to all for statistical and research purposes only, under the following terms and conditions:
1. The data and other materials will not be redistributed or sold to other individuals, institutions, or organizations without the written agreement of the Zambia Statistics Agency
2. The data will be used for statistical and scientific research purposes only. They will be used solely for reporting of aggregated information, and not for investigation of specific individuals or organizations.
3. No attempt will be made to re-identify respondents, and no use will be made of the identity of any person or establishment discovered inadvertently.
Survcey micro data will be provided and subjected to the anonymisation techniques and documented accordingly.
Micro data files are all free but under access policy Conditions:
Each dataset has an access policy :Public use file- Accessible to all and - Licensed datasets, accessible under conditions. The dataset has been anonymized and is available as a Public Use Dataset. It is accessible to all for statistical and research purposes only, under the following terms and conditions:
1. The data and other materials will not be redistributed or sold to other individuals, institutions, or organizations without the written agreement of the Zambia Statistics Agency
2. The data will be used for statistical and scientific research purposes only. They will be used solely for reporting of aggregated information, and not for investigation of specific individuals or organizations.
3. No attempt will be made to re-identify respondents, and no use will be made of the identity of any person or establishment discovered inadvertently.
Citation requirements
Zambia Statistics Agency (2025). 2024-2025 Crop Forecasting Survey
Access authority
| Name | Affiliation | URL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia Statistics Agency | Ministry of Finance and National Planning | info@zamstats.gov.zm | Link |
Disclaimer and copyrights
Disclaimer
ZamStats will not bear any responsibility for the erroneous use of its data by researchers. Users should report inconsistencies in the data (both micro and aggregated) to ZamStats as soon as possible.
The user of the data acknowledges that the original collector of the data, the authorized distributor of the data, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for use of the data or for interpretations or inferences based upon such use
The user of the data acknowledges that the original collector of the data, the authorized distributor of the data, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for use of the data or for interpretations or inferences based upon such use
Copyright
(c) 2025, Zambia Statistics Agency
Metadata production
DDI Document ID
DDI-ZMB-ZSA-CFS-2024-25-V1.0
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia Statistics Agency | ZamStats | Ministry of Finance and National Planning | Survey Implementors |
Date of Metadata Production
2026-01-12
DDI Document version
Version 1.0 (January 2026)